RANEPA experts, whose developments are used by the government, have prepared scenarios for raising the retirement age. The most rational would be a gradual increase for men up to 63 years of age, for women - up to 60 years of age, the authors believe.
Photo: Valentina Pevtsova / TASS
The retirement age in Russia needs to be raised: if everything is left as it is, the burden on the economy will increase, and real pensions will be reduced, according to the report “Increasing the retirement age: positive effects and probable risks,” prepared by experts from RANEPA, a state academy whose calculations are often submitted to the government.
Economists Yuri Gorlin, Viktor Lyashok and Tatyana Maleva developed four scenarios for raising the retirement age, assessing their financial effect and social risks. The optimal option in their analysis is to increase the retirement age to 63 years for men and to 60 years for women in increments of “plus three months to the retirement age” annually in the first four years of the reform, then six months annually ( see infographic).
“The developments of RANEPA experts are always analyzed by the government, some of them are used when making decisions,” a source in the government’s social block told RBC. For example, providing families with a monthly payment at the birth of the first child and payments from maternity capital at the birth of the second were developed by RANEPA experts, Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets said at the RSPP forum on February 7. “I thank the Academy of National Economy, Tatyana Mikhailovna Maleva, this was her idea,” said Golodets.
Why does the retirement age need to be raised?
The most important parameter of the Russian pension system is the ratio of the number of workers for whom payments are made. insurance premiums, and the number of pensioners, the authors note. In 2018, the share of the population over the current retirement age (for men - 60 years, for women - 55) will be 25.5%, by 2030 it will increase to 28.3%, as follows from the average version of the demographic forecast of Rosstat. According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, by the mid-2030s the number of pensioners will be equal to the number of workers for whom insurance premiums are paid, and then will exceed it. This means that already in 2036, a working citizen will be financially responsible for himself, his family and additionally for one pensioner, and in the future - for more than one, write RANEPA economists.
This gap will widen due to an “unprecedented in scale and duration” decline in the economically active population: the loss of the working-age population from 2017 to 2030 will amount to 4 million people, according to Rosstat.
Demographics are not the only problem, economists say. A significant shadow sector of the economy has formed in Russia, within which contributions to the pension system are not deducted from salaries, which reduces the amount of its income. The retirement age in Russia is low compared to OECD countries - for men it is four years lower than the European average, for women it is eight years lower. And as a result of the spread of early pensions, the actual age for starting payments is lower than the legal age. Finally, the average length of work experience is now lower than in the mid-1930s, when the current retirement age was established and has not changed since.
If the retirement age is left unchanged, then, according to RANEPA experts, to maintain the current ratio of the average pension to the average salary (about 35%) it will be necessary to increase the rate of insurance pension contributions by 5 percentage points. (currently the tariff is 22%), which means increasing the burden on employers. Or increase the transfer to the Pension Fund from the federal budget from 2.3% of GDP in 2016 to 3.6% of GDP by 2050. If nothing is done, pensions relative to wages will fall from the current 35% to 24% by 2050. “This option entails high social and political risks: increased social tension, even greater spread of poverty, decreased economic activity, shadowization of the economy, etc.,” the economists conclude.
How to raise your retirement age
The main goal of increasing the retirement age is to increase opportunities for pension growth and reduce the burden of the pension system on the budget and the economy, say the authors of the calculations. Pension reform in Russia has serious demographic limitations, experts say.
At the current retirement age of 60 for men, their life expectancy in retirement is about 16 years, and the probability of 20-year-old men surviving to retirement age is 68%. If the retirement age increases to 63 years, the probability of living to this age and living a long time in retirement for Russian men becomes one of the lowest among developed countries (below the level of Ukraine, Bulgaria, Lithuania and Belarus).
Russian young women today are more likely to live to retirement age (92%) and live longer in retirement (about 26 years). If the retirement age for women is raised to 60 years, Russia’s indicators will be at an average level (between Sweden and Slovakia), and up to 63 years, they will become the worst among developed countries.
The retirement age should be raised to 63 for men and 60 for women - this is the optimal scenario in terms of balancing financial and social consequences, economists say. The increase should occur gradually so that the population and the labor market can better adapt. The rate of increase in the retirement age should not exceed three to six months per year. The financial effect was calculated by experts as a change in the balance of income/expenses of the pension system in comparison with the base case, when the retirement age does not change.
Experts emphasize that authorities must determine a transparent scheme for distributing additional income from people working longer. It is important to explain to citizens that a certain part of the proceeds will be used to increase pensions, and not just to save budget funds. “Otherwise, the social resistance of the population will be completely justified, and it is possible that it will become an insurmountable barrier to further reform of the entire pension system,” economists point out.
Why there is no need to change the retirement age
Today, a significant portion of working pensioners are employed in low-paid jobs; for them, a pension is an additional income to their salary that helps maintain their standard of living. As a result of raising the retirement age, the poverty level may increase, the authors provide possible counterarguments against the scenarios. In this case, the state will have to increase spending on social protection population.
The population of Russia is characterized by poor health, and with reaching retirement age there is a loss of working capacity. The average healthy life span for men is 61 years, and it is impossible to extend the retirement age beyond the old age threshold - this will lead to an increase in mortality, believes Alexander Safonov, vice-rector of the Academy of Labor and Social Relations. According to him, 50% of the population aged 60 years have diseases on the basis of which a disability pension can be issued.
Raising the retirement age creates risks of increased unemployment among both young people and older workers, the expert continues. “The age of discrimination in the labor market starts at 45 years old. 70% of those left on the labor market will remain unemployed. The labor market will not be able to digest these people; there is nowhere to place them,” Safonov told RBC. Unemployment will stop wage growth, and the wage fund will begin to lag behind the inflation rate. “Pension obligations, which are indexed by inflation, will grow faster than the income base of the pension system,” Safonov warns, Kudrin said in January 2017.
“The decision to change the retirement age has not been made. Wide public discussion of this issue is necessary. The Russian Ministry of Labor cooperates with a wide range of experts on issues of state social policy,” the press service of the Ministry of Labor told RBC. The Ministry of Finance forwarded RBC's request to the Ministry of Labor. The Ministry of Economic Development did not respond to the request at the time of publication.
The pension system in Russia is undergoing reforms and changes. A change in the procedure for calculating pensions, annual changes in the indexation algorithm, adjustments to benefits - this is not a complete list of amendments that distinguish the life of a modern pensioner in the Russian Federation from the life of 10-15 years ago. Another change under discussion is the sensational increase in the retirement age in 2018. How will the retirement age be calculated under the new procedure?
World practice and government position
The current retirement age in the Russian Federation has been in effect for 85 years. The Law adopted back in the USSR established the age limit for obtaining pensioner status for women and men - 55 and 60 years, respectively. Of the countries on post-Soviet territory, only the Republic of Belarus and Russia retained Soviet law in force. In other countries, the retirement age has already been raised. Valid in Ukraine new law, but the age remained at the level of Soviet times.
Retirement age in other countries:
| A country | Women | Men |
| Spain | 65 | 65 |
| Israel | 62 | 67 |
| Austria | 60 | 65 |
| Romania | 58 | 63 |
| Hungary | 62 | 62 |
| Kazakhstan | 63 | 63 |
| USA | 65 | 65 |
| Switzerland | 64 | 65 |
| France | 60 | 60 |
| Norway | 67 | 67 |
| Liechtenstein | 64 | 64 |
| Japan | 70 | 70 |
Based on global indicators, we can expect that the age increase will be realized. However, there is no exact date for the introduction of new rules.
Who will get promoted? Last news
Age changes will affect all categories of pensioners, except people with disabilities. A statistical analysis of the number of working pensioners demonstrates that citizens do not stop working after retirement. There can be many reasons for this. But surveys among the population confirm the position of the Pension Fund - people are able to work at 55 and 60 years old, respectively, on an equal basis with young citizens. The trend towards an increase in the number of working pensioners has a negative impact on the budget indicators of the Russian Federation and the Pension Fund. The change is intended to save the country a significant amount of money.
Who has increased their retirement age? Nuances for civil servants
The first to be affected by the issue of raising the age were civil servants. For this category of the population, a new procedure for calculating the retirement period is already in effect. Since 2017, the bar for civil servants has been raised by 6 months every year. This year, those municipal and state employees who are 55 years old (women) and 60 years old (men) can still become pensioners. Since 2018, the age has been set at 56 years and 61 years, respectively. The duration of the transition period is 16 and 10 years. By 2020, retirement ages will reach 57 and 62 years. And so on until the maximum value is reached.
What is the new retirement age for men and women?
Representatives of the Ministry of Social protection call new retirement age indicators - 63 for women and 65 for men. The age was also stated to be 66 years old. The transition will be smooth. It is expected that the minimum age limit for pensioner candidates will be increased by 6 months every year. Time to reach maximum:
- men – 10 years,
- women - 16 years old.
Subject to the passage of the bill in 2018 and its entry into force in 2019, the transition will last until 2035. But the data may still undergo changes.
Will the age increase from January 1, 2018? What to expect?
Experts' forecasts vary. Some say 2018, others say 2019. But it is certain that the retirement age will not be adjusted until the next March elections. Putin also said that the commissioning date has not yet been determined, expressing his position on the need to work through the transition period. Additionally, it should be noted that in addition to increasing age, the minimum length of service will also increase. There are plans to increase the length of service to 20 years, increasing the indicator by 1 year annually.
By voicing a position on postponing citizens' retirement, politicians, government representatives and deputies convince the population that the quality of life will improve as a result of budget savings due to a decrease in the nominal number of pensioners. Citizens were promised not only an increase in pensions, but also the provision of social assistance and free treatment.
Discussions about changing the retirement age continue to this day. The Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Economy, the Ministry of Labor and other departments have already spoken out on this matter. Such friendly excitement around this topic suggests that the problem is acute and that a document will appear in the near future that will answer all the needs of society.
When will the retirement age increase?
Crisis phenomena in the economy have led to the fact that today it is increasingly difficult for young people to find work, not to mention those who are over forty years old. Many people approaching fifty years of age are looking forward to relaxing and receiving their pension benefits.
In fact, the uncertainty with acceptance final decision the Russian government regarding pension provision, many experts explain by the upcoming presidential elections in the Russian Federation in 2018. None of the current officials dare to influence their rating on the eve of the expression of the will of the Russians.
The bill will most quickly reach State Duma deputies immediately after the election of the country's leader. What its final version will be will depend on the new government, although developments of the document are already underway. Economists and experts are in full swing discussing the future increase in the retirement age.
Why are they going to change the retirement age?
Analysts argue that the current pension reform cannot be successfully implemented according to the old principles and criteria. Analyzing the current situation in our country and abroad, they came to the conclusion that raising the age for taking a well-deserved leave is already overdue and inevitable.
According to experts, economic difficulties in the country simply force them to reduce the burden on the budget. The Russian government is looking for additional sources of funding as best it can. Raising the retirement age could reduce the number of pension contributions while increasing income from more jobs.
The demographic situation and real employment of the population also force us to accelerate this process. Currently, the number of pensioners is growing faster than the number of workers, so very soon there may come a time when the working population will not be able to support armies of elderly people. This picture is typical for many states, where the number of people being born is significantly less than the number of people dying.
An analysis of the situation with the retirement age shows that the retirement age limits in Russia are the lowest. They were defined back in Soviet times, when life expectancy was significantly different from the current situation. Today, citizens of the Russian Federation live much longer and this indicator is steadily approaching the value of leading industrial countries, where, in turn, the retirement limit is also higher than in Russia:
| A country | Women | Men |
| America | 65 | 65 |
| England | 60 | 68 |
| Germany | 67 | 67 |
| France | 65 | 67 |
| Italy | 65 | 67 |
| Spain | 65 | 65 |
| Japan | 70 | 70 |
And this is what a similar table looks like in the CIS countries and our closest neighbors:
| A country | Women | Men |
| Kazakhstan | 58 | 63 |
| Azerbaijan | 57 | 62 |
| Moldova | 57 | 62 |
| Georgia | 60 | 65 |
| Lithuania | 58,5 | 62,5 |
| Hungary | 62 | 62 |
| Poland | 60 | 55 |
These tables show that many countries have already moved to a new retirement age. Experts believe that Russia should not mechanically adopt foreign experience.
It is necessary to take into account Russian realities and only then begin a large-scale program. In doing so, pay attention to:
- life expectancy of Russians;
- gender equality;
- improving healthcare;
- the possibility of opening new jobs.
For example, if in Germany the average life expectancy is 79.9 years, and retirement for men begins at 67 years old, this means that German men will be supported by the state for almost thirteen years. In our country, if we assume that men will begin to retire at 65, and their life expectancy at the moment has not even reached seventy years, then it turns out that they will have less than five years to live in retirement. This circumstance causes furious indignation in Russian society. It turns out that the state receives contributions from him throughout a person’s working life in order to provide him with a not entirely decent pension for just a few years.
As for gender characteristics in Russia, it must be taken into account that Russian women receive fewer men, naturally, contributions to the Pension Fund are also much more modest. As a result, when they retire, they can expect little pension benefits.
Pension reform is also closely linked to the creation of new jobs. To provide for all the retirees who remain at work, a sufficient number of jobs is needed. And jobs need to be found for young people if older people hold their positions a few years longer.
How will the retirement age increase?
Since 2017, a bill has come into force according to which the retirement age for civil servants is gradually increasing. The previous level began to rise by six months every year. This process will continue until the boundaries reach 63 and 65, respectively. The increase in the retirement age will continue until 2032 and 2026.
From January 1, 2018, the level for civil servants will be raised for the second time and men will have a retirement age of 61 years, and women - 56 years.
According to this bill, the retirement age for public sector employees and military personnel does not yet change. Presumably, this will happen along with the presentation of a new program of the Government of the Russian Federation after the presidential elections in 2018. Increasing the age will most quickly be carried out according to an already proven scheme, that is, six months every year.
The retirement age differs from generally established standards. This applies to the following categories of citizens:
Starting from 2019, Russians with long work experience can retire early. This basis was introduced in order to mitigate the consequences of carrying out.
Note that since 2017, the retirement age has been gradually increasing - to 63 and 65 years.
Retirement age in Russia since 2019
On January 1, 2019, Law No. 350-FZ of October 3, 2018 came into force, according to which the retirement age, the achievement of which allows a Russian to receive old-age insurance pension payments, was increased by 5 years. The retirement age is now 65 for men and 60 for women.
- The changes are not introduced immediately, but with a stipulated transition period (from 2019 to 2023).
- Every year, the retirement age increases by 1 year, that is, in 2019 - to 61/56, in 2020 - to 62/57, and so on.
- The final values will be fixed from 2023, that is, from now on it will be possible to apply for a pension only at 65 and 60 years old.
For those citizens who were supposed to retire in 2019-2020, the law provided a special benefit. They can issue pension payments 6 months earlier than the schedule for increasing the retirement age. Accordingly, for 2019 the increase will be only six months, and for 2020 - one and a half.
The table according to which the retirement age will be increased is presented below.
Retirement table by year from 2019
| DVP according to the old law (at 60/55 years old) | PV (in years) | Duration increase (in years) | Fiberboard under the new law | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M | AND | |||
| 2019 | 60.5 | 55.5 | 0.5 | II p. 2019 / I p. 2020 |
| 2020 | 61.5 | 56.5 | 1.5 | II p. 2021 / I p. 2022 |
| 2021 | 63 | 58 | 3 | 2024 |
| 2022 | 64 | 59 | 4 | 2026 |
| 2023 | 65 | 60 | 5 | 2028 |
| 2024 | 2029 | |||
| 2025 | 2030 | |||
| 2026, etc. | 2031, etc. | |||
Abbreviations used in the table: DVP - date of retirement; PV - retirement age; p. - the corresponding half-year of the specified year.
The table shows generally established retirement age standards for old-age insurance pensions. For Russians who have retirement benefits (for example, northerners, teachers, mothers of many children, etc.), the deadline for applying for a pension will be different from those indicated in the table (they will all be discussed below). The retirement schedule by year of birth can be found in the article on.
Early retirement in 2020
Pension legislation is provided for certain categories of citizens on various grounds:
- When developing the established special work experience in the profession:
- (working in the conditions of the Far North and areas equivalent to the CS);
- For , .
- For health reasons or social reasons (parents and guardians of disabled children, etc.).
- (42 years for men and 37 years for women).
- registered with the employment service.
Disability pension in 2020
For employees who have experience in difficult, harmful or dangerous working conditions, the law provides for the possibility of early retirement due to harmfulness.
Reducing the retirement age for these citizens depends on:
- their professions (from the so-called and “small lists”);
- duration of special (harmful) work experience;
- duration of the total.
The list of professions, jobs and working conditions, requirements for insurance and preferential length of service, as well as the preferential retirement age established for these persons are indicated in paragraphs 1 - 18 of Part 1 of Art. 30 and art. 31 of the law of December 28, 2013 N 400-FZ “ About insurance pensions».
Please note that the retirement age has been increased since 2019. did not affect the disability pension. All requirements for insurance and special experience also remain the same. You can read more about granting a preferential pension for harmful and difficult working conditions in a separate article.
Retirement for northerners in 2020
For citizens living and working in the Far North (KS) and equivalent areas (ISS), a pension is assigned early - until they reach . The provisions of Article 32 of Law No. 400-FZ establish the following retirement age standards for northerners:
| Recipient category | Age, years | Work experience at the CS in years, not less | Work experience at the ISS in years, no less | Insurance experience in years, not less |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Women with 2 or more children | 50 | 12 | 17 | 20 |
| Men | 60 | 15 | 20 | 25 |
| Women | 55 | 15 | 20 | 20 |
| Men | 50 | Permanently residing and working as reindeer herders, fishermen, commercial hunters | 25 | |
| Women | 45 | 20 | ||
Long service pension for teachers and health workers
Medical and teaching workers who have completed the necessary length of service in their profession have the right to early old-age pension:
- it is necessary to work for at least 25 years in institutions for children (clause 19, part 1, article 30 of law No. 400-FZ);
- it is necessary to work for at least 25 years in rural areas or 30 years in the city (clause 20, part 1, article 30).
Since 2019, the length of service standards for teachers and doctors have not changed, but the procedure for applying for a pension has been adjusted:
- Until the end of 2018, these categories of citizens could apply for a pension immediately after completing the required special work experience.
- On January 1, 2019, the provisions of Part 1.1 of Art. 30 of Law No. 400-FZ, according to which the date of assignment of payments is postponed for 5 years after completion of the length of service.
These changes will be introduced gradually, with annual delays increasing for 1 year. In addition, in the first 2 years (2019 and 2020), a mitigating amendment to the law will be in effect, allowing the deferment to be reduced by 6 months.
Below is a schedule according to which teachers and health workers can now apply for pension payments:
Early pension for the unemployed in 2020
Citizens who lost their jobs due to staff reduction or liquidation of the enterprise and registered with the employment service, pension payments can be issued ahead of schedule. This assignment occurs:
- at the suggestion of the employment service and with the consent of the unemployed;
- if it is impossible to get a new job;
- no earlier than two years before retirement age, including on preferential terms;
- if there are 25 years for men and 20 for women, as well as the required amount, depending on the year of retirement (for example, in 2019, 16.2 IPC is needed).
Early retirement benefits for the unemployed are assigned and paid in accordance with Part 2 of Art. 32 of the Law of the Russian Federation No. 1032-1 of April 19, 1991 “On employment in the Russian Federation”.
Upon achievement of the requirements established by law, recipients early retirement how the unemployed convert their pension to old-age insurance. More information about applying for early pensions for unemployed citizens can be found in the article on.
Who else is eligible for early retirement?
For some categories of Russians, old-age pensions are granted earlier than the generally established retirement age. due to health conditions or for social reasons. The list of these citizens is listed in Art. 32 laws " About insurance pensions" These include, for example:
- Mothers with five or more children who raised them until they were 8 years old;
- Parent, guardian of a disabled person since childhood, who raised him until he was 8 years old;
- Disabled people as a result of military trauma, visually impaired people of group 1;
- Citizens classified as Lilliputians and dwarfs, and so on.
Pension provision for these citizens is established ahead of schedule if there are amounts provided by law.
Since 2019 the list of such preferential categories of citizens was expanded - it included. They now have a fixed retirement age:
- 56 years old- for mothers with 4 children;
- 57 years old- for mothers with 3 children.
Raising the retirement age for civil servants from 2017
In 2017, a law raising the retirement age came into force. The law applies to employees of state and municipal authorities, as well as to persons holding political positions. According to the adopted law, this category of citizens has the right to appointment pension benefit by length of service will arise:
- in men upon reaching age 65 years old, in women 63 years old;
- with a minimum amount of work experience in the government. organs 20 years.
The age and minimum work experience will increase gradually- starting from 2017 they will increase annually for 6 months.
Law No. 350-FZ, adopted in 2018, established a schedule for increasing the retirement age for civil servants. it was changed. From 2020, the step with which the age value changes annually will be not six months, but 1 year. This way the final values will be set in 2026 for women and 2023 for men, that is, faster than according to the original scheme.
It’s no secret that the bill on the retirement age and raising the retirement age was signed in 2018, despite quite a large public outcry. Without going into a discussion of the reasons that prompted the authorities to adopt the bill on the retirement age, raising the age will affect every future pensioner. Including those citizens who should have become pensioners this year. That is, men who have reached 60 years of age, and women who have reached 55 years of age.
The future pensioner himself must apply for a pension (implement it). He does it. And its payment is entrusted to Pension Fund Russia. This not only replenishes the state budget, but also pays pensions to current pensioners and pays out almost all social benefits.
Bill on retirement age, increasing the age for old-age insurance pensioners
The main types of pension received, the condition for the assignment of which is the achievement of a certain age, are, and. now determines not only, but also the size of the official salary. Formation funded pension has its own characteristics, as does the management of savings.
The age at which the law relates the possibility of registration labor pension for old age, funded pension, the same. Before 2018, this age was 60 years for men and 55 years for women.
Since 2019, the retirement age has changed. But the change will take place in stages. The transition period will last until 2023. Then the retirement age for men will be 65 years old, for women - 60 years. We have posted information about it separately.
The annual increment is 12 months, i.e. one year. For convenience, in the publication “”, lawyers have placed an easy-to-use table. Some citizens will be able to take advantage of the benefit. Men born in 1959 and 1960, women born in 1964 and 1965. Detailed information is posted there.
Bill on retirement age, raising the age for assigning a social pension
The change in age affected not only.One type of pension is social. The state prescribes it if a citizen is insufficient. Until 2019, the opportunity to receive such a payment belonged to men who had reached 65 years of age, and women from 60 years of age and above.
And the bill on the retirement age also affected the social pension. Although this topic was discussed less actively in society. Nuance: The age increase will not affect citizens who, before 01/01/2019, reached the ages of 65 and 60 years, respectively, but who did not apply for a pension.
From 01/01/2019 (taking into account the nuances), the state will assign a social pension to a man from 70 years of age (inclusive), a woman from 65 years of age (inclusive). There is no retirement age established for granting a disability and survivors pension. And naturally, taking into account gradual transition to that age.
The year in which a citizen acquires the right to a state pension pension | The age at which the right to a state pension arises |
|
Men | Women |
|
2019 | 66 years old | 61 years old |
2020 | 67 | |
2021 | 68 | |
2022 | ||
2023 and beyond | ||
Benefit: Those persons who from 01/01/219 to 12/31/2020 social pension at the request of such a pensioner, it can be appointed 6 months before reaching retirement age.
Who was not affected by the bill on the retirement age, the age did not increase
- from among the small peoples of the North (55 and 50 years old (men and women, respectively)), permanently residing in the areas inhabited by the small peoples of the North on the day of the pension. Who and what areas belong there - Decree of the Government of the Federal District dated October 1, 2015 No. 1049.
- working in places with hazardous working conditions, in underground work, in hot shops (50 years (men), if the experience in such work is at least 10 years, total experience is at least 20 years) (45 years (women) with special experience at least 7 years 6 months, total – 15 years). There is a benefit if the length of service in such places does not reach the specified minimum (Article 30 of the Law on Insurance Pensions)
- with difficult working conditions (see clause 2, part 1, article 30 of the same law)
And all other points of Art. 30 of the Law (agriculture, underground work, etc.). All jobs are in one way or another connected with a harmful production factor. Therefore it was preserved.
Not changed conditions for assigning pensions to liquidators of the consequences of the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, who lived in the exclusion zone, evacuated from the exclusion zone, etc., women who gave birth to 5 or more children, guardians (parents) of people with disabilities since childhood, etc.
Thus, after global discussions on the draft law on the retirement age, the increase in age, fortunately, did not affect many preferential pensions.
