Foresight session
"Camp of the Future"
Target: creating the desired image of the future and determining strategies to achieve it.
Tasks:
Formation of a unified “field of ideas” of session participants about current trends and future events.
Drawing up by the participants of the session a “map of the Camp of the Future”, describing the main possible events that will influence the achievement of the desired goals.
Coordination by session participants of their positions regarding significant factors influencing the achievement of set goals.
Formation of the road map “Camp of the Future”.
Required materials : board or flipchart (magnetic marker board), flipchart paper, colored markers, whatman paper for each small group, a set of stickers.
Presenter: facilitator- ensures successful group communication, adherence to meeting rules, procedures, regulations
Target Audience: participants are children aged 11 to 17 years, who are the “customers” of child development strategies, since strategies should be focused, first of all, on the needs of future generations (10 people).
Session time: 3 days
Foresight session is a project session to develop a vision of the future and form ideas.
The project session takes place over three days. The project session includes 3 stages of work:
– designing the image of the “Camp of the Future”;
– formation of project ideas;
– development of project parameters and roadmaps.
Introduction
Leading:
speaks and writes down (on a flipchart or on a presentation slide) the purpose and main objectives of the session, the route of work, the main results that should be obtained during the group activity;
announces work regulations;
establishes the rules of group interaction.
Next, the presenter gives the participants a definition of foresight and discusses with them the concept of trend (see Appendix"Basic units of foresight" ), has a small discussion about what they have to do. Participants are given the idea that the future is not predetermined; its foundation is laid by our present actions and decisions.
Main stage
Task No. 1.
The team of participants is divided into several small groups. In small groups, a brainstorming session is held on the topic of searching for current trends in a wellness campaign. The groups also determine which trends need to be supported to create successful recreation and health improvement in children’s camps, and which trends hinder the development and improvement of the individual and society as a whole. Each highlighted trend is written down on a sticky note and then pasted onto a flipchart.
Task No. 2.
The groups are given the task, taking into account the previously identified positive trends, to model and draw their image of the “Camp of the Future” as they see it at certain intervals (near, middle, distant horizons). “Draw the future of your camp.” Within this approach, it is proposed to answer the questions:
– how they see their city in 15–20 years;
– where they see themselves in this camp: what they do, where they live. Before starting this task, it is recommended to discuss several groups of questions with the participants of the foresight session: - what is DOL;
What are its main characteristics; - how DOLs developed in the past, what factors determined their development; - what is important for teenagers in modern children’s education; - what DOLs will be like in the future.
You can invite the group to imagine the future metaphorically using the exercise “I woke up in the morningin DOL and ended up in 2035.” The exercise will allow you to expand your horizon of worldview and learn to formulate goals more clearly and consciously.
You can imagine your successful future in the form of wishes pasted on whatman paper. At the same time, it is important to agree on exactly what types of social activities should be included in this DOL (leisure, socialization, sports...), so that each group can come up with how they will be implemented in their “Camp of the Future”.
Task No. 3.
After completing the Camp of the Future modeling work, groups are asked to develop a roadmap.
At this stage of work, it is important to correlate the desired image of the future with the current situation in the camp and answer the question: are all the needs, formats of leisure and pastime being implemented in the camp. Also, as part of this stage, it is necessary to discuss what can be done today (the nearest horizon) so that new sites and activities appear in the city that will bring the desired image of the future closer. From a comparison of the current situation and the requirements for DOL, formulated at the previous stage, strategies and ideas for future projects should emerge.
Example roadmap
(trends and main events are written on stickers). 
technologies, formats
recovery
- psycholoG
TRIZ pedagogy methods
- Yarnbombing
- Wi- Fi
- relaxation room
- pool
- outdoor cafe
- individual menu
- Bookcrossing
- buffet
- WorkOut
- health path
- organization of forest recreation areas
- Fock's construction
- stadium on the roof of the building
- cycling tracks
- variety of sports sections
- modernization of simulators
- computer room
- robotics club
- quests
- leader school
- planetarium
- new forms of space for creativity (coworking spaces, hackspaces, fablabs)
- interactive library
Digital gallery
- demonstration,
imitation, laboratory, modeling technologies, simulators
- automation
- daily health diagnostics, with recommendations for its prevention
- creating tramps
- cognitive assistants (system of adaptive support for the child during rest)
- gamification
- housings in the “Smart Home” format
- future energy
- mobile camp (changing its spatial location)
- simulator programs
leisure
sport
Socialization
Creation
Culture
education
innovation
middle 2019-2021
average
2022-2025
further
2026-2036
horizons
At the end of the session, participants present their projects. 
Conclusion
Reflection: at the last stage, the group, with the support of the facilitator, reflects on the foresight session:
denotes results: “What have we achieved after all?”;
makes decisions regarding the strategies developed at the session;
evaluates teamwork during the session and draws conclusions for the future.
The participants went through all three stages: they created an image of the future, drew a map of scenarios and agreed on ways to achieve it. the result is a vision of the future and social projects aimed at achieving the selected strategic development priorities. At the same time, the developed projects are not an “order” for the activities of adults, but independent initiatives of the teams participating in the foresight.
A foresight session can lay a high-quality foundation for organizing work on professional and personal support for students.
Application. Basic units of foresight:
Foresight –
this is a technology (session) of long-term forecasting, a way to build a coordinated, balanced and responsible image of the future,this is the joint work of participants on a time map. This is work not with texts, but with images and diagrams.
The authors and participants do not simply assess probabilities and risks, but design their activities. The result of the foresight is the “Map of the Future”.Road map
– a visual image of a shared future, including key development trends, trends, events, technologies, strategic forks and decision pointsTrend –
basic unit of foresight. These are external stable trends, an important, noticeable direction in the development of something.Examples of trends:The share of social design in education has increased. There is an outflow of children's activity into social networks.Technologies
-
a set of methods, processes and materials used in any branch of activity, as well as a scientific description of methods of technical production. Technology Example: Social DesignFormat-
method of construction and presentation, form of holding any event, activityFormat example:Social Design WorkshopTraining on the development of public speakingEvents
What takes place, happens, occurs at a point in space-time; a significant incident, phenomenon or other activity as a fact of public or personal life.
Example of an event: festival of social design, competition “Counselor and his team”
Threat- possible danger. Example threat: lack of funding for social engineering
Unrecognized, unlikely, but at the same time interesting technologies are sent to the field"black swans".
The complex of economic and social problems requires new approaches and non-standard planning ideas from regional authorities, which is difficult with targeted federal funding for most regional and municipal programs.
References
1. Belova T.M. Organizational and economic features of the use of regional resources of rural tourism (on the example of the Novgorod region): dis.... cand. econ. Sci. - St. Petersburg, 2016. - 205 p.
2. State program “Development of culture and tourism in the Novgorod region (2014-2020): government resolution Novgorod. region dated October 28, 2013 No. 318 [Electronic. resource] // Electron. fund legal and normative-technical. documentation [website]. - URL: http://www.docs.cntd.ru (access date: 03/01/2017).
3. On the transfer of lands and land plots from one category to another: federal. Law No. 172-FZ of December 21, 2004 (as amended on July 3, 2016) [Electronic. resource] // Electron. fund legal and normative-technical. documentation [website]. - URL: http://www.docs.cntd.ru (access date: 03/01/2017).
4. On the development of tourism and tourist activities in the Novgorod region: region. Law No. 243-03 of 02/05/2008 (as amended on 12/26/2016) [Electronic. resource] // Electron. fund legal and normative-technical. documentation [website]. - URL: http://www.docs.cntd.ru (access date: 03/01/2017).
5. Electronic fund of legal and regulatory technical documentation [website]. - URL: http://www.docs.cntd.ru (access date: 03/01/2017).
Yu. I. Busheneva
Features of organizing and conducting foresight sessions
Experts in forecasting modern socio-economic processes are faced with a difficult task: in conditions of unstable development of the public sphere, it is necessary to predict the future with a fairly high degree of probability. Formalized forecasting methods today fade into the background, since “the changes occurring in socio-economic life are nonlinear in nature and are described most fully in the language of nonlinear dynamics.” Forecasting is ultimately based on expert methods, among which foresight occupies a leading place today.
Foresight technology in Russia is used to determine key areas of socio-economic development of the country as a whole or the most significant individual areas. Since 2006, various foresight projects have been implemented related to long-term technological forecasts, determining prospects in the field of development of science, energy, and industry.
Predicting the future using foresight technologies is based on certain principles that are enshrined in the Technological Foresight manual, published by an international team of specialists from the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO). Let us indicate the key principles set out in this publication.
1. Involvement - inclusion in the organization of foresight sessions of specialists operating in various fields: representatives of business, the scientific community, government bodies, social movements.
2. Communication - the presence of a mandatory exchange of opinions, discussions between participants
3. Concentration on the long term - making forecasts for the long term.
4. Coordination between scientific, technological and socio-economic changes in people's lives.
5. Consent - the need to develop a consensus opinion on key positions.
6. Systematic nature of the forecasting process - the need to use various forecasting methods in which experts’ reflections are carried out in a structured manner, this process is regularly renewed.
Summarizing the practical experience of conducting foresight sessions, we can highlight their specific features in comparison with other methods of studying the future. The first feature should be defined as the involvement of a significant number of experts in the foresight research. Modern sessions involve from several hundred to several thousand specialists. Their result is not the opinion of one person or a small elite group of researchers, but the generated position of many experts in their field, which significantly increases the likelihood that the predicted phenomena will come true.
The second feature is associated with the obligatory high level of competence of experts who are professionals in various fields of activity (politicians, designers, writers, economists, teachers, engineers, technologists, etc.) and related to the forecasted area. The heterogeneity of participants makes it possible to form an adaptive forecast model that is understandable to all participants and to reconcile the various interests of interested actors. The widespread involvement of specialists, in addition to achieving the immediate goals and objectives of foresight, also leads to the formation of a network of motivated and qualified participants capable of giving a qualitative assessment of socio-economic processes.
The third specific feature of foresight sessions is associated with the use of various techniques, which may include SWOT analysis, PEST analysis, simulation modeling methods, scenarios, methods for constructing ratings and scales, and methods for generating a collective opinion. But foresight is not a set of individual tools, but a coordinated process of exchange of opinions and consultations between participants based on a variety of methods.
The fourth feature of foresight as a research method is associated with a systematic study of an object with the identification of strengths and weaknesses and key development trends for different options. Foresight is scientific foresight using “strategic thinking that is designed to enhance the ability of decision makers to expand the boundaries of understanding the problems and prospects of the future.”
The fifth feature of foresight research is the implementation of regular forecasting; the use of foresight means a shift from one-time forecasting to foresight, which is systematic; from making forecasts of technological processes to forecasting their socio-economic consequences.
As a rule, foresight research is carried out in relation to the development of the scientific and technical sphere, industry, and economy. Their result can be “road maps”, which are official documents reflecting the directions of development of the state or industries. Foresight involves creating a dynamic picture of the future and requires a conscious, active, creative position in relation to the future, and an understanding that today's choices can have an impact on tomorrow. As a result, foresight acquires the prospect of becoming a project for implementing social changes.
Organization of foresight research includes passing through successive stages:
1) persons interested in the research determine the goals and objectives of the foresight session, determine sources of funding for the research, identify methods for conducting foresight, determine the organizing committee or organization responsible for the implementation of the research;
2) criteria for selecting participants for foresight research are formulated, experts are searched and attracted;
3) experts characterize the current state and key current trends in the development of the object under study;
4) using various techniques, prediction of individual elements of the object under study is carried out;
5) various forecasts for the development of elements of the area under study are combined into development scenarios, “road maps” or into the formulation of “windows of opportunity”.
The results of foresight research should be constantly reviewed, provided that representatives of various sectors of civil society are involved in forecasting and its revision. As a result, in addition to clearly visible results in the form of a forecast of the future, foresight also leads to positive changes in the consciousness of members of society. Each active participant can receive the necessary information about public and individual prospects for future development.
References
1. Avanesova R.R., Avramenko E.P., Zakharova E.N., Kardava E.E. Foresight as a tool for ensuring sustainable development at the municipal level // Vestn. Adyghe state un-ta. - Ser. 5. Economics. - 2015. - No. 3.
2. Busheneva Yu.I. Foresight, road maps and “windows of opportunity” or how to look into the socio-economic future // Innovative technologies of scientific development: collection. Art. international scientific-practical conf. - Tyumen, 2016.
3. Epifanova N.Sh. From foresight research to foresight organizations // Current problems of economics and law. - 2011. - No. 4.
4. Klementyeva S.V., Selyakova Yu.I. Foresight study of strategic development of industries as a tool for controlling innovative projects // Controlling. - 2015. - No. 4.
5. UNIDO manual on the principles and methods of Foresight: UNIDO Technology Foresight Training Manual // UNIDO Center for International Industrial Cooperation in the Russian Federation. [Electron. resource]. - URL: http://www.unido.org
6. Timchenko V.V. Foresight philosophy: main categories // Vestn. University (State University of Management). - 2010. - No. 6.
I. V. Galimova
The current state of the Russian stock market
The stock market (securities market) is a sector of the financial market in which transactions for the purchase and sale of securities are carried out. Here transactions are made between entrepreneurs, investors and speculators regarding various types of securities, such as bonds, bills, shares, options, etc.
The role of the stock market is to attract and redistribute capital between various financial institutions, non-financial organizations, structures, sectors of the economy and other participants.
The modern education system makes it a priority to educate successful people who are ready to make choices and make independent, constructive decisions. Planning life and professional prospects, choosing value priorities cause difficulties for students in educational organizations. A narrow and unstructured perspective of professional and personal development dooms them to a limited range of life manifestations, while interest in the professional future as a field of self-realization disappears.
To make the optimal choice in a situation of professional self-determination, a person needs to have the skills of forming a time perspective of life, modeling a picture of the future. The time perspective of the future is a mental projection of a person’s semantic sphere, which combines aspirations, fears, hopes and plans. In order to have a substantive conversation about the future, various tools for collective forecasting and design have been developed and are increasingly being used, one of which is foresight.
Foresight is a technology for working with images of the future. Foresight assumes that there are many possible futures, and the future that actually occurs depends largely on the actions taken today. Thus, foresight requires a conscious, “proactive” stance towards the future and the recognition that choices made today can shape or even create a picture of tomorrow. Foresight methods can be perceived as a kind of consciousness accelerator. How breakthrough the ideas will be depends on the initial creative potential of the team and its individual participants, on their ability to creatively use the proposed exercises.
A foresight session can become an open design workshop for students to understand the most relevant and environmentally friendly direction for the development of their lives, create a basis for making effective decisions, the emergence of fresh, easy-to-implement ideas, a charge of energy and confidence in the future. It differs significantly from “global” foresights, is purely applied in nature, and its duration ranges from 2 to 4 hours.
The task of the session participants is not just to create an image of their future, but also to develop a “road map”, a kind of strategic navigator that will help quickly chart a route towards their goals.
When conducting a session, IMPORTANT:
Use the energy of positive thinking of the team when the joint project is a visualization of the desired future (the team is initially tuned to the “plus”);
Combine the stages of creative and analytical thinking effectively and in the correct sequence.
Model of conducting a foresight session
An example of a foresight session “Effective technologies for success”
Goal: creating the desired image of the future and determining strategies for achieving it. Tasks:
Formation of a unified “field of ideas” of session participants about current trends and future events. Drawing up by the participants of the session a “map of the future”, describing the main possible events that will influence the achievement of the desired goals. Coordination by session participants of their positions regarding significant factors influencing the achievement of set goals. Forming a “road map” for a successful future.Necessary materials: board or flipchart, flipchart paper, colored markers, whatman paper for each small group, a set of stickers.
Presenter (facilitator): educational psychologist, social educator, curator, tutor.
Target audience: 15–25 people.
Session time: 2–4 hours
Introduction
- speaks and writes down (on a flipchart or on a presentation slide) the purpose and main objectives of the session, the route of work, the main results that should be obtained during the group activity; announces work regulations; establishes the rules of group interaction.
Next, the presenter gives the participants a definition of foresight, explains with them the concept of trend1, and conducts a short discussion on the topic of what success is, a successful personality, a successful future. Participants are given the idea that the future is not predetermined; its foundation is laid by our present actions and decisions.
Task No. 1.
The team of participants is divided into several small groups. In small groups, a brainstorming session is held on the topic of searching for current trends in modern society. The groups also determine which trends need to be supported to create success in different areas of society and their lives, and which trends hinder the development and improvement of the individual and society as a whole. Each highlighted trend is written down on a sticky note and then pasted onto a flipchart.
Task No. 2.
The groups are given the task, taking into account the previously identified positive trends, to model and draw their image of a successful future, as they see it in five years.
You can invite the group to imagine the future metaphorically using the “Map for a Successful Future” exercise. The exercise will allow you to increase the level of your potential, expand your horizon of worldview, and learn to formulate goals more clearly and consciously.
Exercise “Map of the Future”.2
Draw a map of your successful future. Designate your global goals as points in the area where you would like to be. Also identify intermediate large and small goals on the way to them. Come up with and write names for the “goal points” that you strive for in your personal and professional life. Also draw the streets and roads you will walk along.
How will you get to your goals? The shortest way or the roundabout way?
What obstacles do you have to overcome?
What kind of help can you expect?
What areas will you have to cross on your way: flowering and fertile lands, deserts, remote and abandoned places?
Will you be blazing roads and trails alone or with someone?
You can imagine your successful future in the form of desires-drawings pasted on whatman paper, cut out from magazines.
Task No. 3.
After completing the work on modeling a successful future, the groups are asked to develop personalities for 5 years and add key activities to the roadmap.
An example of a roadmap (trends and main activities are written on stickers).
| |||||
| |||||
| |||||
At the end of the session, participants must present their projects.
Conclusion
At the last stage, the group, with the support of the leader:
- denotes results (“What have we achieved after all?”); makes decisions regarding the strategies developed at the session; evaluates teamwork during the session and draws conclusions for the future.
A foresight session is considered successful if the participants have completed all three stages: created an image of the future, drew a map of scenarios and agreed on ways to achieve it. If it is not possible to work through all three positions in one session, then the facilitator conducts several cycles of foresight sessions with the group.
A foresight session can lay a high-quality foundation for organizing work on professional and personal support for students. By reviewing and analyzing the roadmap activities, teachers can actively engage in collaborative work with students, offering them cooperation and support. It is possible to conduct trainings, seminars, and organize various projects.
LIST OF REFERENCES USED
"Theory and methodology" http://lit. lib. ru/t/trushnikow_d_j/indexdate. shtml "Generation of Breakthrough Wears". - M.: MANN, IVANOV AND FERBER, 2015.
1 Trend - tendency; an important, noticeable direction in the development of something.
2 http://trenerskaya. ru/article/view/uprazhneniya-pro-celi
There are two main ways to work with the future:
- Long-term planning - setting goals based on linear quantitative estimates from the past through the present. In many ways, this method appeared thanks to long periods of technological structures, when the infrequent appearance of new innovations made it possible to make plans for a long time.
- The scenario approach is based on the variability of the future. Possible modifications of the future are analyzed and managers choose the most suitable one, removing obstacles and preparing for possible risks.
At first, people tried to understand current trends, the factors of their development, assess their capabilities and, based on this, calculate a long-term goal. But over time, the dynamics of change increased and this approach began to show serious failures. As an alternative, methods based on scenario thinking have begun to be used. We’ll talk about one of these today (or get acquainted with a more modern approach.
Forsyth
Foresight (vision of the future) is understood as a methodology of collective work to study the future with the aim of building it by identifying expert knowledge.
The approach is based on the following postulates:
- The future may be different;
- It cannot be reliably predicted;
- It depends on our actions and the future can be created;
- Forecasts about the future allow us to make it the way we want;
- There is a struggle for the future between different images and the people behind them.
The methodology is based on a survey of experts to determine possible future scenarios and select the most preferable one. Working together allows you to create a unified position and build social connections. This method of forecasting:
- is a systematically repeating well-organized process;
- designed for the long term;
- includes stakeholders in the work;
- aimed at real action.
There are three stages of working with the future:
- Strategic Thinking – Exploring the Future;
- Making strategic decisions;
- Implementation of decisions made.
Today, the mainstream idea of foresight is largely shaped by the book “Thinking about the Future. Guide to Strategic Foresight” by P. Bishop. The work describes five stages:
- Identification of the forecast object - the customer sets the boundaries of the research interests;
- Determination of important conditions - qualitative and quantitative indicators of the desired future;
- Scanning is the process of identifying participants and research methods;
- Alternatives for the future - clarification of current trends regarding the object of forecasts, areas of uncertainty, future scenarios;
- Planning and Execution – creating roadmaps to meet changing circumstances.
Building the future can happen through:
- Material resources;
- Authorities;
- Connections;
- Formation of the agenda.
Rapid Foresight
There are various modifications of foresight, and further description of work using this method will be done using the example of Rapid Foresight (high-speed foresight) with which I had to work. It differs from the classical methodology in that:
- does not require “heavy” budgets;
- takes a little time;
- experts work together with diagrams and images, rather than texts;
- the main results are obtained during the forecasting work and immediately after it.
Work using the high-speed foresight method is a session in which experts take part. Such a session has a customer for shaping the future. At the time of contact, the customer is at one of the stages of the process of transforming the future. Accordingly, work using the foresight method is carried out for a specific stage.
The results of speed foresight can be:
- Reliable forecast of the future;
- Coordination of positions and bringing people together;
- Knowledge in the area under change and in the application of foresight;
- Diagnostics of the qualifications of participants and their skills in collective activities;
- Creation of roadmaps and implementation projects;
- Solving specific problems taking into account the picture of the future;
- Creation of materials for further work of the management team.
Time Map
The key idea of the method is a time map, which is a plane where time intervals are measured from right to left, and trends from bottom to top.
To mark the time map, cards are used that the participants fill out. They describe trends belonging to one of the types:
- technology,
- format,
- event,
- normative act,
- threat.
The cards indicate the year of the trend, according to which it is placed in one of the time zones. The timeline has a horizon of decades and consists of four stages:
- Coming soon. Today's trends are likely to bear fruit for a short period of time.
- Middle horizon. Cards are posted with information about phenomena, trends, threats that are important for the present, but so far there are only prerequisites for their breakthrough in the average time frame.
- Far frontier. The cards presented here describe objects that will be formed as a result of the development of existing trends, qualitative leaps in existing technologies, and the crossing of different directions.
- Incredible (black swans). This section includes cards proposed by one of the experts, but not received the consent of the others. Those. we are talking about events that, according to most participants, will never happen.
Work in groups is determined by the sequence of placing cards:
- Discussion of the subject of the work, clarification of its boundaries, etc.
- Placing on the map cards of the main trends that have an increasing or decreasing impact on the subject area (for example, an increase in the amount of carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere of large cities).
- Placing technologies in the subject area on the map (for example, self-driving cars).
- Placing formats on a trend line (for example, a car club).
- Placement of regulations (any laws regulating activities in the subject area).
- Placing threats and opportunities on the map is a subjective assessment of the phenomena posted on the site from the point of view of the subjects. Typical subjects are territory, company, industry, community. The emergence of new subjects is noted on a separate flip chart.
- Placement of events on the map – pinpoint significant events that can change trends.
Structure
To effectively organize a foresight session, a structure is proposed in the form of a description of roles. One and the same person can perform several roles.
- The holder of communications with the customer is responsible for the relationship with the customer from setting the task to presenting the results.
- Facilitator – organizes the design of the foresight session and its implementation.
- Moderators – organizes communications during the session. If there is more than one group, each of them has its own moderator. To simplify work, one group can have two moderators.
- Collector – records events during the session, monitors the dynamics of the group’s work, and moments of looping.
- Analyst – prepares report templates, is responsible for generating the overall report.
- Administrator - monitors the lines and provides the participants with everything they need.
- Experts are specialists in fields related to the task at hand who host the session.
The optimal number of participants is from 5 to 15, but not more than 25. Participants can be divided into subgroups. Each subgroup has a moderator who organizes the filling out of the time card by participants.
Conclusions
I had to take part both in the format described above and in a modified one. For example, the methodology described above included a foresight session to determine the future of consulting and develop standard survival strategies in the consulting market. Key conclusions that I made while working on mistakes after the event:
- it is necessary to outline specific boundaries for the subject of discussion;
- serious preparation (more than one day) of experts is required before the event regarding a specific subject;
- The moderator’s job should consist not so much in managing the session, but in creating conditions for communications and developing a common language of communication.
When I worked using this method in business structures, the experts were mainly attended by company managers who directly manage. Therefore, the results obtained immediately become part of further work, and do not lie in a beautiful binder on a shelf behind the back of the first leader. The problem is that the participants are closed-minded (not all companies are ready to invite outside experts). This issue can be resolved if the company’s management solves the problem not for their own company, but as if acting as experts for a competing company.
Today, the foresight method is a popular change management tool. But its fundamental principles impose certain restrictions, binding experts with mental frameworks (frames). As stated above, foresight is based on the scenario approach of nonlinear systems. The idea is to analyze the past and continue possible alternative development trends. But the possibilities of knowing the past are as small as predicting the future - one can say that there are as many options for the past as there are experts. Moreover, the future depends on the efforts of change agents. Therefore, I find the technology of ctoring more productive. It allows you not to predict, but to create the desired future by organizing the activities of stakeholders.
Links
The word “foresight” comes from the English “foresight”. Translated, it means “look into the future.” Today, foresight is the most effective method used to formulate priorities in the fields of economics, science, technology and society.
Based on the results obtained using such a project tool, special roadmaps are created. They allow us to solve issues of shaping the future.
Definition of the concept
Foresight is an assessment of the long-term perspective of technology and science, which is carried out systematically. The purpose of such projects is to determine the strategic direction regarding new technologies and research that in the future can bring the greatest possible benefits of a socio-economic nature.
History of appearance
Foresight is a methodology that is relatively new. This concept appeared about fifty years ago. The foresight method first appeared in a project developed by the American RAND Corporation. It was there that identification problems in the military sphere were solved.
In the fifties of the last century, the company's specialists were faced with the problem of the insufficiency of traditionally used forecasting methods. At the same time, they went their own way. RAND specialists developed the Delphi technique. Subsequently, many foresight studies began to be based on it.
The technique developed by the Americans was further developed in the seventies of the last century. It was then that the foresight method first appeared on a national scale. The Japanese government was one of the first to appreciate it. Not long ago, the results of the eighth national foresight were summed up in this country.
Similar studies are carried out in almost all countries that are members of the European Union, as well as in China. Relatively recently, Russia was included in this list.
Foresight received a new round in its development in the nineties of the last century. This was a period when the technique went beyond technology and science. Foresight began to be used to assess promising markets. Not so long ago, the technique was used in processes and in the formation of structures included in national innovation systems.
Application
The foresight method is used to develop long-term strategies for the development of technology, science and economics. At the same time, its results are aimed at increasing competitiveness, as well as the possibility of the most effective development of the economic and social sphere.
Foresight is a method in which special attention is paid to achieving consensus among the main participants in the most important strategic directions. This is done by organizing their ongoing dialogue.
However, it is worth keeping in mind that foresight is not guessing the future. The method in question is based on something else. It is based on possible futures that can occur if certain conditions are met.
Foresight directions
Forecasting techniques are used to monitor technological and global trends. It has a direct impact on the development of all government policies. One of the directions of foresight is the formation of an expert organization that will refer to the country's policy. At the same time, forecasting should point to images of progressive national development.
Results
The product of the activities of foresight institutes are the so-called road maps. They represent an official document reflecting the likely paths of development of the state in the future. Based on these maps, long-term priorities in various policies are formed. Such documents serve as key tools for government officials, as they are the basis for developing goals and strategies for the country’s development; when making important decisions in conflict or problem situations; to coordinate the social and political activities of the state.
Methods
The most popular forecasting method in recent years is called Delphi. It is based on data from a survey conducted among a large number of experts (2-3 thousand), as well as the organization of feedback through the second stage of the survey.
In research, this is the foresight method that is often used. A variation of the method, called Delphi, has already found its application in Germany, Japan, Great Britain and some other countries. To conduct the survey, only expert commissions in certain areas are selected and created. At the same time, a list of social topics, economic, scientific and technical achievements is being developed, the emergence of which is expected in the long term (up to twenty-five to thirty years).
The experts participating in the research evaluate each topic and determine the availability of the necessary resources. Potential barriers that may arise during the practical implementation of the most important direction are identified.
There is another foresight method. A type of future called “Critical Technologies” is actively used in France, the USA, the Czech Republic and some other countries. The necessary data is generated based on the knowledge of highly qualified experts. They compile a list of critical technologies in the areas under study. Typically, no more than two hundred experts are involved in such a foresight. At the same time, the forecasting prospect does not exceed five to ten years.
Almost every foresight project is compiled using the expert panel method. This method is considered basic. To implement it, a group of experts of twelve to twenty people is formed. They are given a specific topic and given several months to think about possible future options. At the same time, it is possible to use the latest information and analytical developments and materials.
The peculiarity of the expert panel method is that the foresight process itself is open to many people. The main advantage of the method is the interaction of representatives of various fields of activity and scientific disciplines, which is very difficult to organize under other conditions.
In the late seventies of the last century, Motorola developed a new forecasting method. It's called road mapping. Its main area of application is the development of long-term strategies for large companies or technology industries. The essence of this method is to plan all the main components of the business. This applies to finance and marketing, technology and derivatives and services. The main benefit of road mapping is the development of a coherent vision of the long-term development goals that the company is pursuing.
Selecting a method
Approaches that can be used in foresight projects are constantly being updated. More and more new techniques are appearing. Their choice depends on many factors. These include time and resource limitations, access to sources of information, etc. However, the key condition that guarantees the success of the project is the use of a method that would ensure the most effective work of the group of involved experts.
Conclusion
So, what is foresight? This is a special technology through which long-term forecasting is carried out. In other words, it is a specific way of building a balanced, coherent and responsible pattern for our future. Foresight 2030, 2050, etc. is the main result of the research.
The vision of the future is reflected in various documents, which form the basis for the development of long-term programs and development strategies for countries.
